Why is Strategic Foresight Important for Power Industry Strategy?
1. The current business and operating environment for power companies is uncertain. Terms like VUCA – volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous or TUNA – turbulent, uncertain, novel and ambiguous now are pervasively used in strategy development.
2. We cannot predict or forecast the future. We can only prepare for it.
3. The future does not have data. No amount data mining and estimation based on historical data will give us the crystal ball to see one view of the “right” future. The only way is to understand what might be possible and prepare for it.
4. Preparation is not just a cerebral and intellectual exercise to scan the environment. It requires active decision making, which means understanding the choices against what the aim is. When the situations, plans must be adjusted.
5. To sharpen the aim and make good choices, it is important to understand the futures companies must prepare for. With the current pace of change, it is critical to be vigilant and aware of the where the changes are coming from and the impact it might have to the business, technology selections, investment choices.
6. There is no one view of the future. A blindingly obvious future calls for obvious decisions. But in most cases, there are many possibilities that are interconnected and can manifest in many ways. Without a systematic understanding of the linkages, connections, and driving forces, it is impossible to understand the impact on the current business, and the decisions managers need to make today.
7. Using facts and data driven strategic foresight, managers can draw insights into the futures that are desirable and what is not. Businesses and organization can then take actions on shaping and steering to what is advantageous and hedge and protect against what are potential threats and those that are less desirable.
© 2021 by Greenelectrons Consulting, LLC.